FERS - Future Earth Research School

Carbon Dioxide Removals in Climate Change Scenarios

9–13 November 2026
Bertinoro, Italy
34 hours
25 participants

Scenarios are not predictions of the future: they are tools to explore the space of possible decisions and their consequences. Every pathway to 1.5°C (and most 2°C pathways) produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) now relies on some volume of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – whether through afforestation and reforestation, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), enhanced weathering, or ocean-based approaches. Yet the amount, timing, technology mix, and geographical distribution of CDR deployment differ enormously across models and scenarios, with direct consequences for land use, biodiversity, water, food security, and the rights of indigenous and local communities.

This winter school unpacks how CDR enters IAMs and shapes the scenario space used by the IPCC and climate policy more broadly. Day by day, participants move from foundations to critique: an introduction to IAM structure and the main modelling frameworks; how CDR options are represented and constrained within them; the drivers behind scenario diversity, including overshoot pathways and their reversibility assumptions; and finally, quantitative and qualitative methods for ex post assessment of scenarios, from IAMC database diagnostics to case studies on biodiversity and land-rights impacts. Sessions combine lectures from modelling and policy experts, hands-on exercises with scenario data, and guided discussion of recent discussions about equity of CDR burden-sharing, feasibility and sustainability limits, and overshoot risk.

The course targets PhD students, early-career researchers, and practitioners who want to move beyond treating CDR as a single aggregate number in a chart, and instead understand the assumptions, uncertainties, and normative choices embedded in scenario-based climate research.

Learning objectives

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

  • Develop a solid understanding of how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are structured, what they can and cannot represent, and how CDR options are built into their mitigation pathways.
  • Grasp the different roles CDR plays across scenarios (offsetting residual emissions, enabling net-negative emissions, managing overshoot) and their implications for timing, land use, and climate justice.
  • Get acquainted with quantitative methods for ex post analysis of scenarios (e.g. IAMC scenario database diagnostics, multi-model comparison) as well as qualitative approaches, such as case studies and stakeholder-based assessment.
  • Critically evaluate trade-offs of large-scale CDR deployment, including impacts on biodiversity, food security, water resources, and the land rights of indigenous and local communities.
  • Build the confidence to read, question, and contribute to CDR-related scenario literature and policy debates beyond the winter school.

Faculty

Soheil Shayegh – Director of the Course

Soheil Shayegh is the Director of the Integration of Planetary & Industrial Carbon Cycle Program at CMCC Foundation in Italy. He holds a PhD in Industrial Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology (Atlanta, USA). His primary research interest is developing dynamic models for analyzing the interaction between natural and human systems. In particular, he is investigating the prospect of developing and deploying large-scale carbon dioxide removals (CDR) and other climate interventions and solutions, their integration into the carbon cycle considering their co-benefits, costs, side effects, and potential spillovers.

Logistical information

Location

The course will be at the University Residential Center of Bertinoro (CE.U.B.). Bertinoro is halfway between the cities of Forlì and Cesena, 6 km from SS9 (Via Emilia). Forlì is the town of reference for transport by train and bus to and from Bertinoro.

Food and Accommodation

The accommodation will be at the University Residential Center of Bertinoro. Please remember that participation in presence is mandatory. The school will provide and offer lunches and dinners for all the participants. Participants are free to organize themselves at their own expense upon notice. The school will not cover any extra costs.

Transport

Nearest airport: Bologna airport “Guglielmo Marconi” (BLQ) Nearest train station: Forlì Station (20 min. away from Bertinoro by car) For more information on how to get to the Centre, please check this link. Given that most of the participants will arrive in Bologna – especially from abroad – the school will organize a shuttle to bring participants from Bologna to Bertinoro. More details will be given to the selected candidates.

Admission requirements

General requirements

Our courses are designed for students, early-career researchers and professionals. See How to apply for more information.

Specific requirements

Basic quantitative methods, familiarity with R or any programming language.

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